With crude oil above $100, a multibillion-dollar market, suspected trading and a wartime economy, who is benefiting most from the conflict? A special investigative report.
LAHORE, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News – 11th Sep, 2026) Following joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran, not only has the map of the middle East changed, but the global oil market has also been thrown into turmoil.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil tankers and fears of supply disruptions have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel again. On 10 September, Brent crude rose above $100, while US WTI also approached $100, further increasing concerns about global inflation.
A central question is becoming increasingly important: if people worldwide are bearing the financial burden of the war, who is benefiting from the additional oil revenues? Among the clearest financial beneficiaries are oil companies that can continue production in areas relatively protected from the direct risks posed by Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
US shale producers, Canadian oil sands companies and some Latin American producers can sell their oil at higher prices as global prices rise.
US company Occidental Petroleum reported a realized global oil price of approximately $96.78 per barrel in the latest quarter, a notable increase from the previous quarter.
Research based on reports published by major broadcasters, news agencies and newspapers has indicated that the share prices of several US oil producers rose by approximately 20% to 70% following the Iran war.
Thus, while US consumers are paying higher prices for petrol, the revenues and market valuations of some US energy companies are also increasing.
The second major group comprises Gulf oil-producing countries and their national energy companies.
If crude oil prices remain high in global markets as a result of the war, every additional Dollar per barrel could translate into substantial additional revenue for these countries, provided they can maintain exports.
Saudi Arabia has a relatively significant geographical advantage because its oil pipeline system can transport crude to the Red Sea while bypassing some Gulf-related risks. As a result, Saudi oil exports could, in certain circumstances, suffer less from a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the most complicated part of the wartime economy involves not oil producers but commodity traders, hedge funds and other investors.
A sudden 10%, 20% or 30% movement in oil prices can result in billions of Dollars in profits or losses in futures and options markets.
Profiting from rising oil prices during a war is not, by itself, illegal.
An illegal situation arises when someone obtains information in advance that is unavailable to ordinary investors and trades on the basis of that information. Allegations of insider trading have caused political turmoil in the United States over claims involving the Trump administration.
US Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in April to investigate unusual oil futures trading that took place immediately before key announcements by the Trump administration concerning Iran.
According to the senators, approximately $580 million in trades were suddenly placed in futures markets about 16 minutes before Trump‘s announcement on 23 March regarding talks with Iran and a possible reduction in tensions.
The senators said that on 7 April, bets worth approximately $950 million were placed on oil prices before Trump‘s announcement of a two-week ceasefire involving Iran.
Oil prices fell by approximately 15% after the president’s announcement. President Trump‘s son, John Trump, has a substantial stake in betting websites.
US journalists have also been calling for investigations into the suspected trading.
The senators have demanded an inquiry by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while mainstream US media have raised questions about the possibility of such trading. Axios reported in March that unusual trading had been observed on several occasions before key market-moving decisions by Trump, with the Names of many of his close associates also appearing in connection with the activity.
It also appears contradictory that global oil prices are rising while Iran itself is not a major financial beneficiary of the situation.
Meanwhile, China has adopted alternative trade routes to obtain relatively cheap oil from Iran and Russia. According to reports, Iran has established a complex system with China to evade sanctions, under which Iranian oil is exchanged for Chinese goods.
Billions of dollars in trade are being conducted outside the traditional banking system. At the same time, Chinese companies have increased their purchases of Russian oil because Russian crude is available at lower prices than some alternative sources.
As oil prices rise because of the war, alleged insider trading, ruling elites and global investors are making money.
Ordinary citizens, however, are paying the price through expensive petrol, transport, electricity and food, higher inflation, elevated interest rates and slower economic growth—and may continue to bear this cost for years.
In the United States, higher oil prices have also increased inflation, and by 9 September the average US petrol price had reached approximately $4.22 per gallon.
The problem is even more serious for developing countries, which must spend more foreign exchange to import expensive oil.
In countries such as Pakistan that depend on imported oil, the direct impact is felt in petrol prices, electricity, transport, industrial costs and ultimately the pockets of ordinary people.
The Iran war has created a financial ecosystem in which ordinary consumers are buying expensive petrol, some energy companies are seeing their profits and share prices rise, and billions of dollars are being wagered in global markets.
When unusual trading is observed just minutes before a major political or military announcement in those markets, it is natural to ask whether some investors were merely anticipating the risks of war or whether someone received information about decisions made behind closed doors before the public announcement.
Missiles are not the only weapons being fired in the Iran war.
A second battle is also taking place in global oil and financial markets, where some people are earning billions of dollars while ordinary consumers around the world pay the price.
