The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has made a bold statement by announcing on Monday that it will leave the oil-producing alliance.
One of OPEC’s largest producers, the UAE, will leave the oil producers’ alliance on May 1, 2026, and it ranks as the fourth largest producer in OPEC+.
According to International Energy Agency estimates last year, the OPEC group produced nearly 50% of the world’s oil and oil liquids.
OPEC and OPEC+
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, are known collectively as OPEC+.
OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia with the aims of coordinating petroleum policies and securing fair and stable prices, and now that includes 12 countries, majorly from the Middle East.
OPEC’s crude oil production:
According to Reuters, the group produced over half of global crude in the 1970s before the onset of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea.
In later decades, OPEC’s share stood at between 30% and 40% but record output growth from rivals such as the United States has steadily eaten into that share.
On the other hand, OPEC in 2016 sought to regain influence by forming an alliance with 10 non-members, including Russia, which it called OPEC+.
As a result, its market share increased to around 51.15 million bpd, or nearly 50% of global oil and oil liquids production, in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. In March, a month into the Iran War, that share fell to about 44%.
Which countries are OPEC members?
The current members that represent OPEC are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Whereas non-OPEC countries in the global alliance of OPEC+ include Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, and Brazil.
US-Iran conflict reduces UAE Oil Production:
Before the start of the U.S.-Iran war at the end of February, the UAE was producing 3.3 million bpd and had the capacity to be able to produce as much as 4.5-5.0 million bpd of crude and oil liquids.
Its importance in OPEC in the past was increased because, together with leading OPEC member Saudi Arabia, it had spare capacity that it could add to the market if required.
That has become academic since the unprecedented oil market disruption caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war.
As per OPEC, Gulf OPEC+ crude oil production fell by nearly 8 million barrels per day in March versus February as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq cut output.
The cuts were necessary because they were limited in how much they could export, although both have some ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has a 7 million bpd pipeline to the Red Sea, while the UAE can export 1.5-1.8 million bpd through a pipeline to the port of Fujairah.
OPEC and Global Oil Prices:
OPEC+ says it cuts and raises oil production to balance the markets while critics say the group manipulates prices, which OPEC denies.
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for its decision to resupply the Israeli military, as well as other countries that supported Israel. The embargo banned petroleum exports to those nations.
The oil embargo pressured an already strained U.S. economy that had grown dependent on imported oil.
Oil prices jumped, causing high fuel costs for consumers and fuel shortages. The embargo also brought the United States and other countries to the brink of a global recession.
U.S. President Donald Trump has accused the organization of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices. Trump has also linked U.S. military support to the Gulf with oil prices, saying that while the U.S. defends OPEC members, they “exploit this by imposing high oil prices.”
However, it was Trump who helped to convince OPEC+ to cut output in 2020 during the COVID pandemic as crude oil prices slumped and U.S. oil producers suffered.
According to Kpler data, OPEC crude exports accounted for about 47% of global crude seaborne exports in 2025, while in March 2026, the shares shrunk to 34.7%.
